This week we recorded on Wednesday. This move seemed to throw me off balance, as I entered the recording half asleep, not really ready to do battle with Zee Cohen Sanchez from Arizona, Logan Phillips from Washington D.C., Dave Smith from London, and Mike Holden from Burnley.
America is still adjusting to the Trump guilty verdict and what it means historically, politically, and for leadership and standards in public life. Logan shed light on the minimal impact Trump’s conviction has had on the sentiments of Trump's core base, noting that his electoral appeal might even be reinforced amidst a deepening partisan divide. This phenomenon raises questions about the acceptability of a convicted felon in the Oval Office among Republican voters.
Recent polls suggest a slight advantage for Biden in the wake of the conviction, with potential gains in swing states. However, Phillips cautioned that it's still too early to determine the long-term effects of these developments on the presidential race.
Undoubtedly, the biggest surprise in the UK election campaign was Nigel Farage's decision to run as an MP in Brexit-friendly Clacton. Dave highlighted the significant impact of a resurgent Reform vote, emphasising how this move could siphon votes from the Conservative Party, completely reshaping UK politics after the July 4th election. Mike Holden echoed this sentiment, describing Farage's candidacy as an existential threat to the Conservative Party, potentially devastating its vote share in favour of Labour.
Polling insights provided by Logan Phillips pointed to a notable increase in support for the Reform Party, from 10% to 17%, following Farage’s announcement, while the Conservatives saw a decline from 25% to 19%. Despite this shift, the peculiarities of the UK’s electoral system might prevent the Reform Party from translating popular support into a significant number of parliamentary seats.
What size and what kind of Tory party will be left in the wake of a large Labour victory was hotly debated by Dave and Mike. The potential for a "hostile takeover" of the Conservative Party by Farage's Reform Party, should the Conservatives suffer a significant defeat, is a real option, though I questioned why a party would welcome as its leader someone who had helped kill it. Where the party should track, to the right or left post-election as it assesses why it lost, will determine its future. The merits of the UK’s first-past-the-post system versus proportional representation, Mike reminded us, have in effect acted as a buttress to right-wing extremism with implications for party purity and electoral strategies.
The week after Trump's guilty verdict and Farage enters the race