Originally, I had planned a show on internal Israeli politics with Michael Kaplow from the Israel Policy Forum in Washington. Michael had been recommended by Rabbi Yehuda Mirsky, who came onto the podcast after the 7th October attack. Yehuda said that Michael was good, and he wasn't wrong. He made a marked impact on me with his detailed understanding of Israeli politics when he came on the podcast three weeks ago to discuss the War in Gaza. He is also fair. However, this weekend's events redirected our focus to the broader and more immediate crisis, sparked by Iran's missile strike on Israel in retaliation for Israel's earlier destruction of its Syrian consulate in April.
We explore the implications of the attack, the global reactions, and the strategic consequences they entail. Why did Israel strike the consulate, and how did it think Iran would retaliate? Was this a tactic to goad the US into the conflict, knowing that Iran had to respond overtly as an attack on its sovereign territory under international law? This week we saw the response. Also, what isn't readily clear is the aim of the Iranians: was it a show of strength or actually a sign of military weakness? Its drones were shot down easily; they were slow, a factor likely anticipated by the Iranians. However, its cruise missiles hit the airbase they were aimed at; was that a success?
Michael thinks it inconceivable that Israel won't respond, though Biden and other world leaders are urging restraint. The fact that there hasn't been a knee-jerk response is cause for small celebration, but we should hold our breath. The decision made by the Israeli military and the war cabinet is probably one of the most consequential in the current conflict; time will tell what they do.
We also touch on the domestic implications within Israel, of the contentious new military service plan that has ignited debates over the draft exemptions traditionally granted to the ultra-Orthodox community. Again, Michael outlined the clear fault lines. The ultra-religious are not as loyal to the Israeli state as you might presume; moreover, they do not want to serve, and other Israelis have had enough of this small minority receiving subsidies without the burden of service.
With Benny Gantz calling on Arab Israelis to serve in the military, we talked about the one section of Arab Israeli society that serves with distinction: the Druze. It’s a great listen; let me know what you think in the comments.
Israel Strikes Iran, Iran Strikes Back