Our perception that the world is becoming a more dangerous place seems to be backed up by data. For the second year running, I had the pleasure of speaking to Thomas Morgan of the think-tank The Institute for Economics & Peace about the 2024 Global Peace Index (GPI). Whether it’s Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan, or the Sahel, there are more conflicts, and they are getting deadlier. The Global Peace Index (GPI) highlights significant global and national trends and insights into peacefulness, revealing that the world is witnessing unprecedented levels of conflict.
The GPI report shows a disturbing trend, 97 countries have deteriorated in peacefulness, the highest number since the inception of the index. Conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine were major drivers of this decline, with battle deaths reaching 162,000 in 2023. This alarming figure represents the second-highest toll in the past 30 years, with Ukraine alone accounting for more than half of these deaths. If the current rate of conflict-related deaths continues, 2024 could see the highest number since the Rwandan genocide in 1994.
At MidAtlantic, we primarily focus on the United States and the United Kingdom, so I asked Thomas to look at where both nations ranked on the index. The United States ranks a poor 132nd out of 163 countries in the GPI. This low ranking is influenced by high levels of militarisation, involvement in numerous external conflicts, and significant internal issues such as violent crime. Rising political polarisation and frequent mass shootings further tarnish its standing. Despite its global influence, the U.S. faces considerable challenges in maintaining domestic peace. Though Thomas made the caveat that America’s superpower role has also underlined peace in many theatres across the globe.
In the United Kingdom, it's a story of stability amidst rising crime. Ranked 34th, the United Kingdom's position is primarily impacted by an increase in violent crime, particularly knife-related incidents, and its active role in international conflicts like supporting Ukraine. While the UK maintains relatively high levels of safety and security compared to global standards, these issues have prevented it from improving its rank significantly.
MidAtlantic looked at the implosion of Haiti last month. A nation in crisis, it's no surprise that Haiti remains among the ten least peaceful countries, grappling with severe internal instability and gang violence. Despite not being in the absolute bottom five, Haiti's peace index ranking is severely affected by its lack of effective governance and ongoing humanitarian crises. The country continues to struggle with lawlessness and political turmoil.
One of the paradoxes of the index could be that it could be used by authoritarian regimes as a marker of success. Together we spoke about El Salvador’s controversial measures for short-term peace. In reducing violent crime through mass incarceration, leading to a significant drop in its homicide rate, El Salvador has gone up rapidly on the list this year. However, this approach raises concerns about long-term sustainability and civil liberties. The country’s strategy has sparked debate over whether such methods could be effective elsewhere without infringing on human rights.
Ukraine's position as one of the least peaceful countries is, of course, driven by the ongoing conflict with Russia. The invasion has resulted in substantial casualties and widespread destruction, causing significant displacement and economic turmoil. Ukraine's low ranking reflects the severe impact of the war on its societal stability and infrastructure, which is in stark contrast to Iceland, which is a model of peace. Consistently ranked as the most peaceful country, Iceland enjoys low crime rates, minimal military expenditure, and a stable political environment. Its geographic isolation and strong social cohesion contribute significantly to its top ranking, setting an example for peaceful societies worldwide.
The Global Peace Index 2024 underscores the complex and multifaceted nature of global peace. While some nations like Iceland continue to lead in peacefulness, others face persistent and evolving challenges. The detailed report offers a comprehensive view of these dynamics, providing valuable insights for policymakers and peace advocates. For more detailed information, you can visit the Global Peace Index 2024 report on the Vision of Humanity website.
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